POLL-Turkey’s C/A posted a deficit of $5.37 billion in March

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reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls?RIC=TRCURA%3DECI Poll data

Deficit of $38.35 billion in 2022

ISTANBUL, May 11 (Reuters)Turkey’s current account is expected to register a $5.37 billion deficit in March and end the year in deficit of $38.35 billion, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday, as rising energy prices widen the deficit .

Eliminating Turkey‘s chronic current account deficit of $14.9 billion in 2021 was one of the main goals of President Tayyip Erdogan’s new economic program, which also prioritizes growth, exports and jobs with low interest rates.

But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has pushed up oil and natural gas prices, making it harder for Turkey to close the deficit, as tourism receipts could also fall this year on fewer arrivals from the two countries – both usually major tourist sources.

The trade deficit, a key component of the current account, widened 75% year on year to $8.17 billion in March, official data shows, mostly on energy imports.

The median estimate by 13 economists in the Reuters poll for the March current account deficit was $5.371 billion, with forecasts ranging from $4.27 billion to $7 billion.

The total deficit was estimated at $38.35 billion for 2022, according to the median estimate by 12 economists, with forecasts ranging from $32.50 billion to $60 billion.

Economists have revised upwards their forecasts for the 2022 deficit due to energy prices. The median forecast two months ago was $29 billion.

The deficit was $7.1 billion in January, the highest since December 2017, and $5.15 billion in February.

A currency crisis in 2018 led to a recession and a sharp drop in imports, helping Turkey to a rare current account surplus in 2019.

As part of Erdogan’s economic plan, the central bank cut interest rates by 500 basis points since September, prompting a currency crisis that saw the lira lose 44% against the dollar last year. Along with rising commodity prices, inflation rose to 70% in April.

The Central Bank of Turkey is due to release March current account data on May 16 at 0700 GMT.

(Reporting by Ali Kucukgocmen Editing by Daren Butler)

(([email protected] , @alikucukgocmen; +905319306206; Reuters Messaging: Reuters Messaging: [email protected]))

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